Methodology & Sources

Methodology & Sources

How the Observatory Knows What It Knows

Every watch draws on one shared evidence architecture: a registered set of sources, a tracked register of claims, a layered evidence model and an explicit confidence framework. This page documents the method behind the signals.

No claim of uniqueness rests on aggregation alone. Evidence layers are separated, confidence is stated, and fields without a source are left empty rather than populated with invented data.

n=701

Survey respondents

Fieldwork by Censuswide

57

Registered sources

54 cleared for public display

28 / 29

Source reliability

High / Medium rated

69

Tracked claims

46 approved for public display

21 / 28 / 20

Claim confidence

High / Medium / Low

15 July 2026

Data cut-off

Q2 2026

Q2 2026

CUDO Observatory. Data as of 15 July 2026. Language: UK English (en-GB).

Primary research

Survey & interview methodology

Quantitative survey

  • Base: n=701 decision-makers
  • Partner: Censuswide
  • Fieldwork: February 12–25, 2026
  • Regions: UK, US & Europe (France, Italy, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Nordics)

Qualitative material

  • Interview and external benchmark material is labelled separately from the survey and is not blended into survey percentages
  • Findings triangulated against the registered source base
  • Independent benchmark data (e.g. Artificial Analysis) retained and labelled as such
  • Structured expert interviews (E3) are planned but not yet collected; interview counts are held for review before public display
Evidence model

Six evidence layers

Every figure is tagged by how it was established. Layers are never blended without attribution.

E1
In use

Official public data

Government, regulator and operator data (e.g. grid, interconnection, policy). Directly citable.

E2
In use

CUDO Land. Power. Compute. research

CUDO’s own LPC research programme and survey evidence.

E3
Planned — not yet collected

Structured interviews & analysis

Emmanuel’s structured expert interviews and threshold analysis.

E4
In use

CUDO calculations

Derived figures computed from E1–E3 inputs with a stated, reproducible method and a public calculation receipt.

E5
In use

CUDO interpretation

Editorial synthesis and directional reads, clearly attributed as interpretation.

E6
Structure only

Fields awaiting evidence

Placeholder structure shown for review only. Never populated with invented data.

Source register

Search the registered sources

Every publicly displayable source carries a publisher, type, publication period and reliability rating. Search or filter the register below; claims reference these source IDs.

Showing 54 of 54 publicly displayable sources.

PublisherTypePeriodReliabilityLink
Amazon Web Services
Official AWS P5 instance pricing
First-party (CUDO)2026-Q2HighVisit
Bessemer Venture Partners
AI data centre stack roadmap
Analyst report2026-Q1MediumVisit
Camus Energy
Grid connection timeline analysis
Vendor material2026-Q1MediumVisit
Center for a New American Security
Sovereign AI Index; UAE sovereign AI cloud data
Analyst report2026-Q1HighVisit
CloudZero
H100 cost analysis
Analyst report2026-Q2MediumVisit
CNBC
Charts showing Europe's reliance on US digital infrastructure
Secondary media2026-02-13HighVisit
CoreWeave
Direct vendor pricing page
Vendor material2026-Q2MediumVisit
Council of the European Union
AI Gigafactories regulation position
Authoritative research2025-12-09HighVisit
Ember
European grid planning for data centres; FLAP-D constraints
Analyst report2026-Q2HighVisit
EuroHPC JU
AI Factories selection and details
Authoritative research2025-Q4HighVisit
European Commission
Official AI Factories policy page
Authoritative research2025-Q4HighVisit
European Union
Official EU AI Act text (Regulation EU 2024/1689); definitive source for enforcement dates
Authoritative research2024-06-13HighVisit
Federal Communications Commission
Reported service availability only. Does not prove a fibre route at a specific distance from a site. Referenced in the methodology invalid-mapping note; not used to back any public signal.
Authoritative research2026HighVisit
Google Cloud
Official Google Cloud GPU pricing
First-party (CUDO)2026-Q2HighVisit
Government of Canada
AI Sovereign Compute Infrastructure Program
Authoritative research2026-Q1HighVisit
Grand View Research
AI infrastructure market report
Analyst report2026-Q1MediumVisit
Hanwha Data Centers
Grid limitations and power bottleneck analysis
Vendor material2026-Q1MediumVisit
Harvard Kennedy School
AI data centres and US electric grid analysis
Academic research2026-Q1HighVisit
IEA
Global data centre electricity consumption data
Authoritative research2026-Q1HighVisit
IEA
European data centre energy constraints commentary
Authoritative research2026-Q2HighVisit
INTROL
GPU price collapse analysis; also source for TCO model
Analyst report2025-12MediumVisit
INTROL
5-year GPU infrastructure TCO model; primary source for $15.7M claim
Analyst report2026-Q1MediumVisit
INTROL
PJM grid crisis analysis; transformer lead times
Analyst report2026-Q1MediumVisit
INTROL
South Korea $735B sovereign AI initiative analysis
Analyst report2026-Q1MediumVisit
INTROL
France AI sovereignty analysis
Analyst report2025-Q4MediumVisit
Intuition Labs
GPU pricing comparison; vendor-reported rates
Analyst report2025-Q4 to 2026-Q2MediumVisit
Jarvis Labs
H100 price drop analysis
Analyst report2025-Q4MediumVisit
KAD8
GPU cluster TCO analysis; goodput concept
Analyst report2026-Q1MediumVisit
Lambda Labs
Direct vendor pricing and cloud info
Vendor material2026-Q2MediumVisit
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Canonical source for the end-of-2025 US generation and storage interconnection queue (2,060+ GW). Supersedes the 2025 Edition (SRC-LBNL-QUEUED-UP-2025) as the current figure.
Authoritative research2026HighVisit
LBNL / U.S. DOE
Queued Up 2025 Edition; authoritative interconnection queue data through end of 2024
Authoritative research2025-12-15HighVisit
LBNL / U.S. DOE
Data centre electricity demand evaluation
Authoritative research2025-01-15HighVisit
Loopback Systems
Overview analysis of LBNL 2025 queue report
Analyst report2025-12MediumVisit
MarketsandMarkets
GPU-as-a-Service market sizing
Analyst report2026-Q1MediumVisit
Microsoft Azure
Official Azure VM series pricing
First-party (CUDO)2026-Q2HighVisit
Novogradac
Interconnection queue analysis
Analyst report2026-Q1MediumVisit
NVIDIA
France sovereign AI infrastructure; NVIDIA partnership
Vendor material2026-Q1MediumVisit
NVIDIA
Vendor material. Canonical source for current NVIDIA rack-system naming (Vera Rubin NVL72). Treat performance figures as vendor claims.
Vendor material2026MediumVisit
NVIDIA
Vendor material. NVIDIA states full-scale 800 VDC data-centre production coincides with the Kyber rack generation in 2027, not the 2026 Rubin platform.
Vendor material2025MediumVisit
NVIDIA
Vendor material. DGX B200 is air-cooled; GB200 NVL72 is liquid-cooled. Used to correct the earlier implication that Blackwell makes air cooling impossible.
Vendor material2025MediumVisit
Publications Office of the European Union (EUR-Lex)
Amending regulation that preserves 2 August 2026 as the AI Act general application date but stages Annex III high-risk obligations to 2 December 2027 and Annex I to 2 August 2028. Canonical source for the staged AI Act timeline.
Authoritative research2026HighVisit
Rocky Mountain Institute
Interconnection reform analysis
Analyst report2026-Q1HighVisit
RunPod
Direct vendor pricing page
Vendor material2026-Q2MediumVisit
SemiAnalysis
GPU shortage and rental capacity crunch; 40% demand surge data
Analyst report2026-Q1HighVisit
Spheron Network
Cross-provider GPU pricing comparison
Analyst report2026-Q2MediumVisit
Synergy Research Group
European cloud market share data; US hyperscalers ~70%
Analyst report2026-Q1HighVisit
Synpix Cloud
GPU pricing comparison
Analyst report2026-Q2MediumVisit
Thunder Compute
H100 pricing guide; also a GPU provider
Vendor material2026-Q2MediumVisit
U.S. Congress
Protecting AI and Cloud Competition in Defense Act; introduced, in committee
Authoritative research2025-05-15HighVisit
U.S. Department of Energy
Integrated Interconnection and Transmission Roadmap
Authoritative research2024-04HighVisit
U.S. EIA
U.S. electricity demand growth analysis
Authoritative research2026-Q1HighVisit
United States Geological Survey
USGS retired the National Hydrography Dataset in October 2023. Distance to mapped surface water does not prove water serviceability, rights or cooling capacity. Referenced in the methodology invalid-mapping note; not used to back any public signal.
Authoritative research2023HighVisit
Vast.ai
Decentralized GPU marketplace pricing
Vendor material2026-Q2MediumVisit
World Economic Forum
Strategic bottleneck analysis for AI transformation
Secondary media2026-05HighVisit
Architecture

One shared evidence architecture

Confidence framework

Every claim carries a confidence rating — High, Medium or Low — with a stated reason, and a review date. Of 69 tracked claims, 21 are High, 28 Medium and 20 Low confidence. A claim is only shown publicly once it is approved for display, cleared for rights, sourced, dated and within its freshness window; the remaining claims are held for review.

Shared entities

Geographies, markets, workload profiles and power sources are defined once and reused across every watch. This lets the Power & Site Intelligence Map, Energy Migration Matrix and placement logic reference the same underlying records rather than disconnected source models.

Definitions

Claim types and evidence status

Every figure on the Observatory carries a claim type and an evidence status. These are the definitions in use.

Claim types

Observed
A directly reported figure from a registered source, quoted as published.
Survey finding
A result from the CUDO Land. Power. Compute. survey, shown with its base and question.
Calculated
A figure CUDO derives from other inputs using a stated, reproducible method and a calculation receipt.
Estimate
An approximate figure where the underlying data is incomplete; the basis and range are stated.
Forecast
A forward-looking figure attributed to its source, presented as a projection, not a measurement.
CUDO interpretation
An editorial reading of the evidence, clearly attributed as interpretation rather than a measured fact.

Evidence status

Verified
Confirmed against a registered source and reviewed by a person.
Partly verified
Some elements confirmed; others still carry a stated caveat.
Calculated
Produced by a CUDO method with a reproducible receipt.
Estimate
Approximate; basis and uncertainty are stated.
Forecast
A projection attributed to its source.
CUDO interpretation
Editorial synthesis, attributed as such.
Not verified
Not yet confirmed; held back from public display.
Stale
Past its freshness window; withdrawn from display until re-checked.
Withdrawn
Removed after review; not shown publicly.
Definitions

Price basis and legal instrument

Prices and legal references are labelled by basis and status. Contracted and PPA prices are never shown publicly without explicit authority.

Price basis

Wholesale market price
Spot or day-ahead market price.
Retail sector average
Average sector tariff, not a single contract.
Published tariff
A rate published by a supplier or regulator.
Public list price
A vendor list or advertised rate.
Contracted price
A specific contracted rate. Not shown publicly without explicit authority.
PPA price
A power purchase agreement price. Not shown publicly without explicit authority.
Forecast
A projected price attributed to its source.
CUDO scenario
An illustrative figure built by CUDO for a stated scenario, not a market observation.

Legal instrument status

In force
Currently applicable law.
Adopted, not yet applicable
Enacted, with a future application date.
Official guidance
Regulator guidance, not primary legislation.
Legislative proposal
A proposal under consideration.
Draft scheme
A draft not yet adopted.
Policy commitment
A stated intention, not yet law.
Repealed or superseded
No longer in effect.
Requires legal review
Flagged for legal review before any public reliance.
Definitions

Project lifecycle facets

Build projects are not forced into one linear status. Each facet is tracked independently, and every state transition needs its own dated evidence.

FacetAllowed states
Public announcementNot disclosed · announced · updated · withdrawn
Site or landNot evidenced · disclosed · controlled · not verified
GridNot evidenced · requested · in study · offered · contracted · energising · energised
PlanningNot evidenced · pre-application · submitted · approved · refused · appealed
ProcurementNot evidenced · issued · awarded
ConstructionNot started · enabling works · under construction · commissioned
OperationsNot operational · partial operation · operational · suspended
Rules

Freshness, staleness and calculation receipts

Freshness and stale rules

  • Each claim, signal and event carries a data period, a retrieved date and a last-verified date.
  • Each record also carries a stale-after date. Once that date passes, the record is treated as stale and withdrawn from public display until it is re-checked.
  • The named release cut-off is 15 July 2026. Figures reflect evidence available on or before that date.

Calculation receipt method

  • Every published CUDO calculation (E4) shows a receipt: the formula, the input claims, the assumptions, the exclusions, the period and the rounding rule.
  • A calculation is only published when it is approved, reproducible from its stated inputs, reviewed by a person and within its freshness window.
  • Where an input is a scenario rather than a market observation, it is labelled as a CUDO scenario.
Policy

Corrections, withdrawal and rights

Correction and withdrawal policy

  • If a published figure is found to be wrong, it is corrected against its registered source and the review date is updated.
  • If a claim can no longer be supported, it is withdrawn and no longer shown publicly, rather than left in place with a caveat.
  • Where a correction changes a headline figure, the change is reflected in the Latest Update feed.

Rights and download policy

  • A source is only shown in the public register when its display rights are approved.
  • Download rights are tracked separately from display rights. Where a source is not cleared for redistribution, the Observatory links to it rather than reproducing it.
  • Chart exports carry CUDO attribution and the data cut-off, and reproduce only figures cleared for public display.