How the Observatory Knows What It Knows
Every watch draws on one shared evidence architecture: a registered set of sources, a tracked register of claims, a layered evidence model and an explicit confidence framework. This page documents the method behind the signals.
No claim of uniqueness rests on aggregation alone. Evidence layers are separated, confidence is stated, and fields without a source are left empty rather than populated with invented data.
n=701
Survey respondents
Fieldwork by Censuswide
57
Registered sources
54 cleared for public display
28 / 29
Source reliability
High / Medium rated
69
Tracked claims
46 approved for public display
21 / 28 / 20
Claim confidence
High / Medium / Low
15 July 2026
Data cut-off
Q2 2026
Q2 2026
CUDO Observatory. Data as of 15 July 2026. Language: UK English (en-GB).
Survey & interview methodology
Quantitative survey
- Base: n=701 decision-makers
- Partner: Censuswide
- Fieldwork: February 12–25, 2026
- Regions: UK, US & Europe (France, Italy, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Nordics)
Qualitative material
- Interview and external benchmark material is labelled separately from the survey and is not blended into survey percentages
- Findings triangulated against the registered source base
- Independent benchmark data (e.g. Artificial Analysis) retained and labelled as such
- Structured expert interviews (E3) are planned but not yet collected; interview counts are held for review before public display
Six evidence layers
Every figure is tagged by how it was established. Layers are never blended without attribution.
Official public data
Government, regulator and operator data (e.g. grid, interconnection, policy). Directly citable.
CUDO Land. Power. Compute. research
CUDO’s own LPC research programme and survey evidence.
Structured interviews & analysis
Emmanuel’s structured expert interviews and threshold analysis.
CUDO calculations
Derived figures computed from E1–E3 inputs with a stated, reproducible method and a public calculation receipt.
CUDO interpretation
Editorial synthesis and directional reads, clearly attributed as interpretation.
Fields awaiting evidence
Placeholder structure shown for review only. Never populated with invented data.
Search the registered sources
Every publicly displayable source carries a publisher, type, publication period and reliability rating. Search or filter the register below; claims reference these source IDs.
Showing 54 of 54 publicly displayable sources.
| Publisher | Type | Period | Reliability | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Amazon Web Services Official AWS P5 instance pricing | First-party (CUDO) | 2026-Q2 | High | Visit |
Bessemer Venture Partners AI data centre stack roadmap | Analyst report | 2026-Q1 | Medium | Visit |
Camus Energy Grid connection timeline analysis | Vendor material | 2026-Q1 | Medium | Visit |
Center for a New American Security Sovereign AI Index; UAE sovereign AI cloud data | Analyst report | 2026-Q1 | High | Visit |
CloudZero H100 cost analysis | Analyst report | 2026-Q2 | Medium | Visit |
CNBC Charts showing Europe's reliance on US digital infrastructure | Secondary media | 2026-02-13 | High | Visit |
CoreWeave Direct vendor pricing page | Vendor material | 2026-Q2 | Medium | Visit |
Council of the European Union AI Gigafactories regulation position | Authoritative research | 2025-12-09 | High | Visit |
Ember European grid planning for data centres; FLAP-D constraints | Analyst report | 2026-Q2 | High | Visit |
EuroHPC JU AI Factories selection and details | Authoritative research | 2025-Q4 | High | Visit |
European Commission Official AI Factories policy page | Authoritative research | 2025-Q4 | High | Visit |
European Union Official EU AI Act text (Regulation EU 2024/1689); definitive source for enforcement dates | Authoritative research | 2024-06-13 | High | Visit |
Federal Communications Commission Reported service availability only. Does not prove a fibre route at a specific distance from a site. Referenced in the methodology invalid-mapping note; not used to back any public signal. | Authoritative research | 2026 | High | Visit |
Google Cloud Official Google Cloud GPU pricing | First-party (CUDO) | 2026-Q2 | High | Visit |
Government of Canada AI Sovereign Compute Infrastructure Program | Authoritative research | 2026-Q1 | High | Visit |
Grand View Research AI infrastructure market report | Analyst report | 2026-Q1 | Medium | Visit |
Hanwha Data Centers Grid limitations and power bottleneck analysis | Vendor material | 2026-Q1 | Medium | Visit |
Harvard Kennedy School AI data centres and US electric grid analysis | Academic research | 2026-Q1 | High | Visit |
IEA Global data centre electricity consumption data | Authoritative research | 2026-Q1 | High | Visit |
IEA European data centre energy constraints commentary | Authoritative research | 2026-Q2 | High | Visit |
INTROL GPU price collapse analysis; also source for TCO model | Analyst report | 2025-12 | Medium | Visit |
INTROL 5-year GPU infrastructure TCO model; primary source for $15.7M claim | Analyst report | 2026-Q1 | Medium | Visit |
INTROL PJM grid crisis analysis; transformer lead times | Analyst report | 2026-Q1 | Medium | Visit |
INTROL South Korea $735B sovereign AI initiative analysis | Analyst report | 2026-Q1 | Medium | Visit |
INTROL France AI sovereignty analysis | Analyst report | 2025-Q4 | Medium | Visit |
Intuition Labs GPU pricing comparison; vendor-reported rates | Analyst report | 2025-Q4 to 2026-Q2 | Medium | Visit |
Jarvis Labs H100 price drop analysis | Analyst report | 2025-Q4 | Medium | Visit |
KAD8 GPU cluster TCO analysis; goodput concept | Analyst report | 2026-Q1 | Medium | Visit |
Lambda Labs Direct vendor pricing and cloud info | Vendor material | 2026-Q2 | Medium | Visit |
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Canonical source for the end-of-2025 US generation and storage interconnection queue (2,060+ GW). Supersedes the 2025 Edition (SRC-LBNL-QUEUED-UP-2025) as the current figure. | Authoritative research | 2026 | High | Visit |
LBNL / U.S. DOE Queued Up 2025 Edition; authoritative interconnection queue data through end of 2024 | Authoritative research | 2025-12-15 | High | Visit |
LBNL / U.S. DOE Data centre electricity demand evaluation | Authoritative research | 2025-01-15 | High | Visit |
Loopback Systems Overview analysis of LBNL 2025 queue report | Analyst report | 2025-12 | Medium | Visit |
MarketsandMarkets GPU-as-a-Service market sizing | Analyst report | 2026-Q1 | Medium | Visit |
Microsoft Azure Official Azure VM series pricing | First-party (CUDO) | 2026-Q2 | High | Visit |
Novogradac Interconnection queue analysis | Analyst report | 2026-Q1 | Medium | Visit |
NVIDIA France sovereign AI infrastructure; NVIDIA partnership | Vendor material | 2026-Q1 | Medium | Visit |
NVIDIA Vendor material. Canonical source for current NVIDIA rack-system naming (Vera Rubin NVL72). Treat performance figures as vendor claims. | Vendor material | 2026 | Medium | Visit |
NVIDIA Vendor material. NVIDIA states full-scale 800 VDC data-centre production coincides with the Kyber rack generation in 2027, not the 2026 Rubin platform. | Vendor material | 2025 | Medium | Visit |
NVIDIA Vendor material. DGX B200 is air-cooled; GB200 NVL72 is liquid-cooled. Used to correct the earlier implication that Blackwell makes air cooling impossible. | Vendor material | 2025 | Medium | Visit |
Publications Office of the European Union (EUR-Lex) Amending regulation that preserves 2 August 2026 as the AI Act general application date but stages Annex III high-risk obligations to 2 December 2027 and Annex I to 2 August 2028. Canonical source for the staged AI Act timeline. | Authoritative research | 2026 | High | Visit |
Rocky Mountain Institute Interconnection reform analysis | Analyst report | 2026-Q1 | High | Visit |
RunPod Direct vendor pricing page | Vendor material | 2026-Q2 | Medium | Visit |
SemiAnalysis GPU shortage and rental capacity crunch; 40% demand surge data | Analyst report | 2026-Q1 | High | Visit |
Spheron Network Cross-provider GPU pricing comparison | Analyst report | 2026-Q2 | Medium | Visit |
Synergy Research Group European cloud market share data; US hyperscalers ~70% | Analyst report | 2026-Q1 | High | Visit |
Synpix Cloud GPU pricing comparison | Analyst report | 2026-Q2 | Medium | Visit |
Thunder Compute H100 pricing guide; also a GPU provider | Vendor material | 2026-Q2 | Medium | Visit |
U.S. Congress Protecting AI and Cloud Competition in Defense Act; introduced, in committee | Authoritative research | 2025-05-15 | High | Visit |
U.S. Department of Energy Integrated Interconnection and Transmission Roadmap | Authoritative research | 2024-04 | High | Visit |
U.S. EIA U.S. electricity demand growth analysis | Authoritative research | 2026-Q1 | High | Visit |
United States Geological Survey USGS retired the National Hydrography Dataset in October 2023. Distance to mapped surface water does not prove water serviceability, rights or cooling capacity. Referenced in the methodology invalid-mapping note; not used to back any public signal. | Authoritative research | 2023 | High | Visit |
Vast.ai Decentralized GPU marketplace pricing | Vendor material | 2026-Q2 | Medium | Visit |
World Economic Forum Strategic bottleneck analysis for AI transformation | Secondary media | 2026-05 | High | Visit |
One shared evidence architecture
Confidence framework
Every claim carries a confidence rating — High, Medium or Low — with a stated reason, and a review date. Of 69 tracked claims, 21 are High, 28 Medium and 20 Low confidence. A claim is only shown publicly once it is approved for display, cleared for rights, sourced, dated and within its freshness window; the remaining claims are held for review.
Shared entities
Geographies, markets, workload profiles and power sources are defined once and reused across every watch. This lets the Power & Site Intelligence Map, Energy Migration Matrix and placement logic reference the same underlying records rather than disconnected source models.
Claim types and evidence status
Every figure on the Observatory carries a claim type and an evidence status. These are the definitions in use.
Claim types
- Observed
- A directly reported figure from a registered source, quoted as published.
- Survey finding
- A result from the CUDO Land. Power. Compute. survey, shown with its base and question.
- Calculated
- A figure CUDO derives from other inputs using a stated, reproducible method and a calculation receipt.
- Estimate
- An approximate figure where the underlying data is incomplete; the basis and range are stated.
- Forecast
- A forward-looking figure attributed to its source, presented as a projection, not a measurement.
- CUDO interpretation
- An editorial reading of the evidence, clearly attributed as interpretation rather than a measured fact.
Evidence status
- Verified
- Confirmed against a registered source and reviewed by a person.
- Partly verified
- Some elements confirmed; others still carry a stated caveat.
- Calculated
- Produced by a CUDO method with a reproducible receipt.
- Estimate
- Approximate; basis and uncertainty are stated.
- Forecast
- A projection attributed to its source.
- CUDO interpretation
- Editorial synthesis, attributed as such.
- Not verified
- Not yet confirmed; held back from public display.
- Stale
- Past its freshness window; withdrawn from display until re-checked.
- Withdrawn
- Removed after review; not shown publicly.
Price basis and legal instrument
Prices and legal references are labelled by basis and status. Contracted and PPA prices are never shown publicly without explicit authority.
Price basis
- Wholesale market price
- Spot or day-ahead market price.
- Retail sector average
- Average sector tariff, not a single contract.
- Published tariff
- A rate published by a supplier or regulator.
- Public list price
- A vendor list or advertised rate.
- Contracted price
- A specific contracted rate. Not shown publicly without explicit authority.
- PPA price
- A power purchase agreement price. Not shown publicly without explicit authority.
- Forecast
- A projected price attributed to its source.
- CUDO scenario
- An illustrative figure built by CUDO for a stated scenario, not a market observation.
Legal instrument status
- In force
- Currently applicable law.
- Adopted, not yet applicable
- Enacted, with a future application date.
- Official guidance
- Regulator guidance, not primary legislation.
- Legislative proposal
- A proposal under consideration.
- Draft scheme
- A draft not yet adopted.
- Policy commitment
- A stated intention, not yet law.
- Repealed or superseded
- No longer in effect.
- Requires legal review
- Flagged for legal review before any public reliance.
Project lifecycle facets
Build projects are not forced into one linear status. Each facet is tracked independently, and every state transition needs its own dated evidence.
| Facet | Allowed states |
|---|---|
| Public announcement | Not disclosed · announced · updated · withdrawn |
| Site or land | Not evidenced · disclosed · controlled · not verified |
| Grid | Not evidenced · requested · in study · offered · contracted · energising · energised |
| Planning | Not evidenced · pre-application · submitted · approved · refused · appealed |
| Procurement | Not evidenced · issued · awarded |
| Construction | Not started · enabling works · under construction · commissioned |
| Operations | Not operational · partial operation · operational · suspended |
Freshness, staleness and calculation receipts
Freshness and stale rules
- Each claim, signal and event carries a data period, a retrieved date and a last-verified date.
- Each record also carries a stale-after date. Once that date passes, the record is treated as stale and withdrawn from public display until it is re-checked.
- The named release cut-off is 15 July 2026. Figures reflect evidence available on or before that date.
Calculation receipt method
- Every published CUDO calculation (E4) shows a receipt: the formula, the input claims, the assumptions, the exclusions, the period and the rounding rule.
- A calculation is only published when it is approved, reproducible from its stated inputs, reviewed by a person and within its freshness window.
- Where an input is a scenario rather than a market observation, it is labelled as a CUDO scenario.
Corrections, withdrawal and rights
Correction and withdrawal policy
- If a published figure is found to be wrong, it is corrected against its registered source and the review date is updated.
- If a claim can no longer be supported, it is withdrawn and no longer shown publicly, rather than left in place with a caveat.
- Where a correction changes a headline figure, the change is reflected in the Latest Update feed.
Rights and download policy
- A source is only shown in the public register when its display rights are approved.
- Download rights are tracked separately from display rights. Where a source is not cleared for redistribution, the Observatory links to it rather than reproducing it.
- Chart exports carry CUDO attribution and the data cut-off, and reproduce only figures cleared for public display.